2021 Projections: Arizona Cardinals
In our fantasy drafts, we always think we have a good idea of what numbers to expect from our picks. However, I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can really help, not only can they differentiate players’ expected outcomes easily but also show which players have the most room for upside. With this series, I will be showing my personal expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best-ball/redraft drafts right now. These do not really work for dynasty as well because they are just 2021 projections, but if young players are projecting well that is a great sign for dynasty. Let’s dig in.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last 2-3 seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. As well as team-focused stuff like pass to rush play ratio (this is just team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass to rush touchdown ratio and total plays. I then use these past trends and try to predict what will be in store for 2021. Here are my projections for the Arizona Cardinals’ fantasy-relevant players.
Keep in mind, these stats are for the new 17 game season and not the old 16 game seasons. I have Kyler posting a pretty solid year, posting 4,000 pass yards, with 700 rush yards and 32 total touchdowns. This gives him a very solid 23.7 fantasy points per game and cements him as an elite fantasy option, no surprise there. The surprise may actually come in the form of Chase Edmonds point totals. He comes in at 13.2 points per game and that was higher than I expected it to be. I do think he is being a bit undervalued in these best-ball drafts, with an ADP of RB28. I don’t believe Edmonds will be seeing a huge share of carries but his receiving work will definitely score him points. I currently have him projected for a 12% target share and a 40% carry share. Kyler will eat up a lot of carries and James Conner is no slouch either. However, that 12% rate will be more than enough to make Chase a stable RB2 this season. I don’t really need to mention Hopkins, he is a stud, he will see a large target share and he is being drafted appropriately. The rest of this WR core is a big fade in redraft/best-ball to me. They are all going to eat into each other while Hopkins reigns supreme. From a dynasty perspective, Rondale also has some barriers he will need to push through to achieve relevancy. Check out our rookie rankings on Patreon to see how we feel about Rondale compared to the rest of his class. Though there are signs of life, Kirk and AJ Green will be free agents next season so if we could see Rondale capture that WR2 role and therefore a larger target share he could easily see well over 100 targets in 2022. If they retain Kirk he will probably still be up around 85 targets, which is still good and leaves room to grow.
That is all I have for you here today. I hope you enjoyed it and lookout for the next installment when I take on the Atlanta Falcons, post-Julio Jones.
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