• Kyle Chap DPT

ACL Tears & Hit Rates Pt.2: Tight Ends

Twitter: @DoctorChapFF

We are back with part two of the statistical analysis of ACL tears from 2013-2019 featuring the tight end position. This list is a lot more limited than the WR/RB committee, however, we can still paint a picture of what occurs.

  • 20 ACL Tears

  • 5 Rookies (4 of them UDFA)

  • No UDFA Rookie played another snap (100%)

  • 0 Rookies have “hit” since injury (0%)

  • 5 players have “hit” in a season prior to ACL Tear (5/15): 33%

  • 2 players have “hit” in a season following ACL Tear (TE14 or >) (2/19): 10.5%

  • 3 players showed improvement from pre-ACL season to post ACL season (all non-rookies included): 3/15: (20%)

  • 13 Players have not played another snap in the NFL since injury (13/20): 65%

Okay okay, this looks extremely daunting at first and that’s because the UDFA class is muddying the already limited statistics over the past 8 years. For that reason, I will give be excluding the UDFA ACL Tear class prior to diving in any further (although I will need to include it again later for Blake Jarwin purposes)



TE ACL TEARS (EXCLUDING UDFA) SINCE 2013

  • 9 ACL Tears

  • 1 Rookie

  • Has not “hit” in the NFL (or even come close)

  • 4 Players have “hit” in a season prior to ACL Tear (4/8): 50%

  • 2 Players have “hit” in a season following ACL Tear (TE 14 or >) (2/9): 22%

  • 2 players showed improvement from pre-ACL season to post ACL season (all non-rookies included): (3/8): (37.5%)

  • 4 Players have not played another snap in the NFL since injury (4/9): 44.4%

Now, just like part one of the ACL tear statistical analysis, I will be breaking this down by a range of round drafted, and then by age.

UDFA

  • 11 ACL Tears

  • 4 Rookies

  • None have played a single snap since (100%)

  • 0 players “hit” in a season prior to ACL Tear (0/7): 0%

  • 0 have “hit” in a season following ACL Tear (TE14 or >) (0/11): 0%

  • 0 players showed improvement from pre-ACL season to post ACL season (all non-rookies included): (0%)

  • 8 Players have not played another snap in the NFL since injury (9/11): 81.8%

Notable Players: Tim Wright (hit prior to tearing) & Derek Carrier



Rounds 7-4

  • 4 ACL Tears

  • 0 Rookies

  • 0 players “hit in a season prior to ACL Tear (0/4): 0%

  • 0 have “hit” in a season following ACL Tear (TE14 or >) (0/4): 0%

  • 1 player showed improvement from pre-ACL season to post ACL season (all non-rookies included) (1/4): 25%

  • 2 players have not played another snap in the NFL since injury (2/4): 50%

Notable Players: Jake Butt & James O’Shaughnessy


Typical “hit” rate (TOP 12) by Round:

Round 7: 0%

Round 6: 14%

Round 5: 16%

Round 4: 26.09%



Rounds 3-1

  • 5 ACL Tears

  • 1 Rookie

  • Played the following season, never “hit” (or came close)

  • 4 players “hit” in a season prior to ACL Tear (TE14 or >) (4/5): 80%

  • 2 have “hit” in a season following ACL Tear (TE14 or >) (2/5): 40%

  • 2 players showed improvement from pre-ACL season to post ACL season (all non-rookies included) (2/4): 50%

  • 2 Players never played another snap in the NFL since injury (2/4): 50%

Notable Players: Dustin Keller (Never played another snap), Gronk (HIT), Hunter Henry (HIT), Jeff Heuerman, Brandon Pettigrew (Never played another snap)


Typical “hit” rate (TOP 12) by Round:

Round 3: 27.27%

Round 2: 44.44%

Round 1: 93.33%


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AGE RANGE

22-23

  • 8 ACL Tears

  • 5 Rookies

  • 4 have never played another snap (4/5): 80%

  • 0 Rookies have “hit” in a season following ACL Tear (TE14 or >) (0/5): 0%

  • 0 players “hit” in a season prior to ACL Tear (TE14 or >) (0/8): 0%

  • 0 players have “hit” in a season following ACL Tear (TE14 or >) (0/8): 0%

  • 0 player showed improvement from pre-ACL season to post ACL season (all non-rookies included) (0/8): 0%

  • 6 Players never played another snap in the NFL since injury (6/8): 75%


24-26

  • 9 ACL Tears

  • 0 Rookies

  • 3 players “hit” in a season prior to ACL Tear (TE14 or >) (3/9): 33%

  • 2 players have “hit” in a season following ACL Tear (TE14 or >) (2/9): 22%

  • 2 players showed improvement from pre-ACL season to post ACL season (all non-rookies included) (2/9): 22%

  • 4 Players never played another snap in the NFL since injury (4/9): 44%

27+

  • 3 ACL Tears

  • 0 Rookies

  • 2 players “hit” in a season prior to ACL Tear (TE14 or >) (2/3): 66.67%

  • 0 players have “hit” in a season following ACL Tear (TE14 or >) (0/3): 0%

  • 1 player showed improvement from pre-ACL season to post ACL season (all non-rookies included) (1/3): 33.33%

  • 2 Players never played another snap in the NFL since injury (2/3): 66.67%

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Summary

  • Long story short, Rob Gronkowski and Hunter Henry are the only two players who produced a Top 14 Tight end season in the NFL following an ACL Tear since 2013.

  • 0 players who hadn’t “hit” in the NFL prior to having an ACL tear have hit following an ACL Tear (Rookies included)

  • The data is obviously limited, but this is 7 years' worth of statistics here.


Players to keep in mind:

  • Blake Jarwin

  • Round Drafted: UDFA

  • Age when tore ACL- 26

  • Has he “hit” before – No


  • Albert Okwuegbunam

  • Round Drafted: 4

  • Age when tore ACL – 22

  • Has he “hit” before –No (Rookie)


Do I hope Jarwin or Albert O. can “hit” at least one time down the road? ABSOLUTELY. But looking at the statistics, they will need to be outliers.


Albert Okwuegbunam, in my opinion, is in a great position to succeed and recover. He is behind a budding TE star in Noah Fant and will not need to be rushed back into play. If you have him, keep him in your taxi for another year. STASH

Unfortunately past 2013, I can’t find the exact full list of players who tore their ACL, however, I have a bonus player added from the 2012 class.


BONUS: In 2012, Heath Miller (age 30) tore his ACL.

  • Draft Capital: 1st Round Pick

  • Heath “hit” 3x prior to ACL tear

  • He “hit” once more 2 seasons post ACL tear

Again, this follows the narrative of players that all players that “hit” post-tear were players that “hit” pre-ACL tear.


Hope you guys enjoy this series and this can help you with your teams moving forward.