Dynasty’s Most Overvalued & Undervalued Quarterbacks
Superflex is the most popular way to play dynasty fantasy football in 2021. Obviously, quarterbacks score the most fantasy points of any position and each team only starts one quarterback each week so the pickings can become slim. Whether you like taking the big-name guys early (which I suggest) or waiting for a few rounds, this article can help you. I broke down six guys who are being miss-valued based on their current startup ADP in Superflex formats. I did this same process for running backs and wide receivers in my last two articles and will do Tight Ends next. Now, let us dive into dynasty’s most overvalued and undervalued quarterbacks.
Undervalued: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings – ADP: QB21
(Photo Credit: Reed Hoffman / AP)
Since becoming the full-time starter for Washington in 2015, Kirk Cousins has posted six straight top 20 seasons as well as QB5, QB6, QB10, and QB13 finishes. Despite only passing the ball 34.8 times per game in 2020 (25th in NFL) he was eighth in passing yards, third in yards per attempt, and ninth in true completion percentage. He has also thrown for six straight 3,600-yard seasons (five of those were over 4,000). He has been as consistent as they come, and with a bad defense, I expect them to be in-game scripts that will force them to throw the ball a lot. Justin Jefferson and Irv Smith Jr. now have another year in the offense and should be much improved to assist Cousins alongside Adam Thielen. Cousins will give you an extremely high floor each week, but that does not mean he cannot give you big games. Cousins had nine QB1 games in 2020 including two weeks he finished as a top-three QB. Weeks 9-17 (the second half of 2020) Cousins was the QB4! He is a great value at QB21 as he can win you weeks while also providing a safe floor. The time to buy Cousins is now.
Overvalued: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears – ADP: QB10
Despite having traded up for Fields, the Chicago Bears have been persistent about Andy Dalton being the starter in week one. This is dynasty, so it is okay to draft a guy and be patient but if I am going to wait, I would much rather take Trey Lance (San Francisco’s #3 overall pick) at his ADP and play on his upside in a much better offense, with an much better coaching staff. QB10 seems expensive for someone who was faded by most of the NFL during draft season and does come with concerns of his own. It seems like a cheap argument, but when multiple NFL organizations pass on a guy who is a need, you might want to listen a little bit. Despite his elite athleticism and his 4.43u 40 time, Fields showed a lack of Pocket presence and struggled to work through his progressions during his time at Ohio State. He struggled with blitzing defenses in college as well as picking up coverage rotations and NFL defenses will recognize this and should be able to make Fields’ life difficult. Fields has plenty of upside and could bring a rushing floor that you love for your fantasy quarterbacks, I just have my concerns and since quarterback is the most important position in Superflex I would be more than weary taking Fields as my teams QB1. The biggest gripe I have with him is his ADP, as there are many other guys available with the same (if not more) upside that does not come with as much of a risk.
Undervalued: Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers – ADP: QB35
(Photo Credit: Marcio Jose Sanchez / AP)
Do not get me wrong, Jimmy G has had his fair share of struggles staying healthy and staying consistent with his QB play. But where he is being drafted, it is 100% worth the risk. Jimmy’s 16 game pace was the QB8 in 2017, he finished as the QB14 in 2019, and had a 2020 (full game) pace of QB14. Jimmy is also projected to be the full-time starter this season and is surrounded by talent. He has the best receiving core, the best running backs, and the best offensive line of his career (by far). Jimmy’s biggest flaw is that he struggles to throw under pressure and the 49ers addressed this in the offseason and in the draft. They added Pro Bowl center Alex Mack, as well as resigned the best tackle in football Trent Williams. They also took all-American guard Aaron Banks in the second round who only allowed two sacks in three years at Notre Dame. With Kyle Shanahan calling plays, and too many weapons around him to name, Jimmy could easily post a top 15 season in 2020, and even if he is replaced by Trey Lance next season, I can almost guarantee he will sign somewhere with a chance to be the starter. It is not a fun or flashy pick, but his value today is too good to pass up.
Overvalued: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – ADP: QB20
With Julio Jones now in Tennessee, Matt Ryan must take the field without his go-to target for the first time since 2010. Calvin Ridley and new Tight End Kyle Pitts are no slouches, but nobody is Julio Jones, and Ryan’s stats reflect that. Last season when Julio was healthy and on the field, Ryan averaged 20.5 Fantasy points per game, which is on pace for the QB11. Without Julio in the lineup, he was averaging 15.54 FPPG which would have been a QB21 finish. Ryan is 36 years old, and I am growing weary because if he is not going to give me top 12 QB play now, he never will. Tom Brady may be 43 but he was the QB7 last year and shows no sign of slowing. Ryan finished first in the NFL in attempts in 2020 and it should be mentioned that the new head coach for Atlanta (Arthur Smith) runs a run-heavy scheme finishing 31st and 30th in passing attempts his past two seasons as an offensive coordinator. Although the Falcons do not have the personal to run the ball that often, it will still eat into Ryan’s attempts. The combination of a mild regression, an unfavorable scheme, and Julio’s departure do not spell out success in Ryan’s future. I am fading Ryan and will not be looking to draft him anywhere near QB20. Near his ADP I would rather play upside with a young guy (Mac Jones/Zach Wilson) or take a vet that is safe (Tom Brady/Kirk Cousins), and Ryan is neither of those.
Undervalued: Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: QB41
One quarterback that I think is not being given the credit he deserves is Kyle Trask. There seem to be concerned about Trask’s transition to the NFL level despite his dominance in the SEC this past season. Though there are concerns about his ability to read the field and make good decisions, he is now sitting behind the greatest quarterback of all time, and if anyone can mentor him to greatness it's Tom Brady. That alone carries enough upside to be drafted higher than QB41. Not to mention once Brady steps down, which will happen one day (I think?), he will be stepping into a great offense, with great coaching around him. Although there are a lot of question marks surrounding Trask, he just led the entire NCAA in passing touchdowns (43) and was second in passing yards (4,283) all while playing in college football’s hardest division. He is purely an upside play here but denying the upside would be a mistake as there is a path to fantasy relevance for Trask. Tampa Bay is by far the best landing spot for him to learn and progress into a good football player. I like Trask as a stash in Superflex leagues as he comes with no price tag, and since Tampa is coming off a super bowl last season, we can assume their future draft picks will be late enough that they will not be taking a blue-chip rookie next year to replace him.
Overvalued: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns – ADP: QB17
Baker Mayfield is coming off his best season but left plenty to be desired in terms of fantasy, finishing as the QB18. Although he was consistent each week, he certainly was not winning you any weeks as he did not score over 26 points once all year. The biggest issue with Baker is that the recipe for the Browns to win games does not benefit a quarterback. Running the ball and shutting you down with an elite defense is how the Browns will win games, which caps Bakers upside a lot. The saving grace for guys in a similar scheme, like Ryan Tannehill, is that the Titans have a bad defense, which puts him in good game scripts, and he also has two top 10 wide receivers. The Browns do have a solid receiving core but as Baker goes into his fourth season, he is yet to finish as a top 15 quarterback. When the Seahawks were giving the ball to Marshawn Lynch over and over at the start of Russell Wilson's career, he was still putting up QB1 seasons. Now comparing Baker to a future Hall of Famer seems counterintuitive but it still leaves me wondering if this is Baker Mayfield’s ceiling. Drafting QBs in dynasty is when upside is most important, which is what Mayfield lacks. I would be looking for someone later who could give me more upside each week in your next startup draft.