Elite Dynasty QBs: A Deep Dive
Today I will be looking at the top eight dynasty QBs in ADP during this offseason for startups (according to RotoViz.com). I will be comparing all of these players across different important metrics that relate to fantasy football. These include age, games played, fantasy points per game, touchdowns per game, and bust rate. This list of elite QBs consists of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson. I will be looking at their stats from 2018 to 2020 and using this info to compare and rank them. Let us dig in.
First, let’s become familiar with each column. The first is their age. The second is career games played since 2018. I removed any games in which the QB didn’t play over half. This way we aren’t misled by games where a only few plays happened and then they left with an injury. The third column is fantasy points per game, using 6 point passing TD scoring. The fourth and fifth columns are rush yards per game and pass yards per game. Next, is the total touchdowns per game column, which is the combination of passing and rushing touchdowns. This is followed by the number of bust games and lastly, the bust rate. I am calling any game in which the player did not score 15 or more points a bust. These are the top 8 dynasty QBs and they are expected to be safe weekly options for you.
Using this chart, I’d first like to point out just how amazing Mahomes is. He has scored the most PPG and is even more than two points above Lamar. No other set of QBs are more than .7 apart on this list. His touchdowns per game are a whopping 2.7, which leads the group. Again, there is more room between him and the next guy than for anyone else. Lastly, he’s the king of consistency. Only two games in his three-year career have resulted in less than 15 fantasy points, for the low rate of 4.7%. Just absolutely crazy stuff from Mahomes, he is easily dynasty QB1.
Lamar Jackson is not the greatest passer, but he also doesn’t need to be in order to be a successful fantasy asset. His rushing upside is unmatched in the history of the NFL and that alone provides such an amazing weekly floor. He has averaged 74.8 rush yards per game in his career which is basically a free 7.5 fantasy points each week. Throughout his career, he has only had two games where he did not score at least 15 fantasy points. This gives him the second-best bust rate of any of these QBs. Lamar is also pretty handily the number 2 QB in terms of points per game which is the most important stat when it comes to actually winning your fantasy games. He’s also third in TDs per game which is crucial to scoring big fantasy points. We need to keep in mind that for Lamar these stats include him being thrust into a previously led Joe Flacco offense as a rookie. As well as having a bottom 3 WR room for his short career. The Ravens have not exactly been successful in adding to his weapons, but it is not due to a lack of trying. They offered deals to both Kenny Golladay and Juju Smith-Schuster, but were in the end, turned down. The Ravens clearly want to add more elite weapons for Lamar to throw to and if they can manage this it should not only help his passing but also free up his rushing. Lamar is currently my dynasty QB2 and he should be yours also.
Justin Herbert had one of the best rookie seasons from a QB I’ve ever personally watched. There were many drives that he just simply seemed unstoppable. When I started this article and made this chart I thought he might look good compared to these other guys but not THIS good. First of all, he’s the youngest on the list, which is huge in dynasty. Second, he is third in PPG, behind only the current most talented QB in the league, Mahomes, and the rushing anomaly that is Lamar Jackson. But it does not end there. He is 2nd in TDs per game, slightly beating out Lamar, and is 3rd in pass yards per game! Do not forget that he did all of this as just a rookie. The chargers added to their o-line, changed their offensive staff, and may even add a weapon high in the draft at WR or TE. The Chargers are building around Herbert and I want as much of him as possible. My current QB3 in dynasty.
Another guy I want to talk about is Kyler Murray. Murray is currently the QB3 according to rotoviz.com ADP, and I just do not agree with this. He is the 2nd youngest and in a very good situation, but even so, he is last in some of these stats. Murray is 2nd to last in PPG, dead last in TDs per game, and has the worst bust rate of all of these guys. I like Kyler, he is a very good QB in a supreme situation. However, I just cannot take him over guys like Lamar, Dak, and Herbert. He is my dynasty QB6 and I suggest taking him out of your top 3 if you do have him there.
My current top 8 QBs are as follows: