How Do Traded Players Compare Before & After A Trade?
Over the last month or two, I have looked into the previous three years to gauge how well they did immediately before and after changing teams. This time we are going to see whether or not there is a better ‘hit rate’ if they were part of a trade or not. In this first piece, we’ll look at which running backs were part of these transactions and if their fantasy value improved, decreased, or stayed within a similar level.
Montgomery flew out of the traps in weeks one and two of the 2017 season with a pair of RB1 finishes in back-to-back weeks. Unfortunately, he would break a rib in week four, forcing him to miss the next game, meaning Aaron Jones would take over the lead role. Although Montgomery would produce one more top performance during the season, his year would end after re-injuring his ribs during week ten, which would mean he would be placed upon injured reserve.
Mongomery was the 3rd choice running back behind Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams in 2018 and would play seven games for the Packers before being traded to the Baltimore Ravens in week 10. He would debut during eleven for his new side and would feature in five games.
We have taken the combined finishes between weeks 1-9 to form his pre-trade finish, and post-trade was taken from weeks 11-17 because he did not play week 10 with the timing of his trade to Baltimore.
2017 Finish- 52
2018 Pre Trade- 58
2018 Post Trade- 73
Carlos Hyde played his last year in San Francisco during the 2017 season and had an excellent fantasy season with 13 games returning either RB1 or RB2 results. He would become a free agent and sign a three-year deal with the Browns, playing six games. Hyde was traded to the Jaguars shortly before week seven and would play eight games, sharing the backfield with Fournette and Yeldon. Hyde would have no fantasy value following this trade as he did not finish higher than an RB4 and was released after the season’s conclusion.
2017 Finish- 9
2018 Pre Trade- 14
2018 Post Trade- 83
Kenyan Drake shared a backfield with Frank Gore in 2018 during his final full season in Miami. He would have 36 fewer carries than Gore and finish with 535 yards on 120 rush attempts, although Drake would have seventy-three targets, which would be good enough for third on the team behind only Danny Amendola and Kenny Stills.
Six players would finish the season with more than 30 rush attempts for the Dolphins in 2019 in a very poor season for the running back position as a whole. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick would lead the team with only 243 yards. Following the trade to the Cardinals on the 28th of October, Kenyan Drake grabbed his chance to be the featured back, producing a number good enough to finish running back two overall on his first game for the team in week nine. This would be the first of his three RB1 numbers following the move cross country (one was good enough for the highest total of week fifteen).
We have taken the combined finishes between weeks 1-7 to form his pre-trade finish, and post-trade was taken from weeks 9-17 because he did not play week 8 with the timing of his trade to Arizona.
2018 Finish- 17
2019 Pre Trade- 40
2019 Post Trade- 4
Johnson split time with Nick Chubb, and for six games, Carlos Hyde (before Hyde’s trade to the Jaguars). He would finish with 40 rush attempts for 201 yards.
Johnson would split the share with Carlos Hyde again in 2019 for the Texans and finished as an overall RB3. His fantasy output was somewhat erratic fantasy performances. It may have been likely that the fantasy managers may have missed out on his top points due to lower outputs in weeks running up to RB1 performances.
2018 Finish- 41
2019 Finish- 32
Jordan Howard would lead the Chicago Bears in carries (250), rushing yards (935), and total touchdowns (9). He would share the backfield with Tarik Cohen.
Howard was traded to the Eagles during the off-season. His weekly fantasy outputs were pretty up and down during his nine games in 2019. However, Howard would have some fantastic weeks, such as the thirty-one-point performance during week four. If the season finishes after week nine, it would have been good enough for Howard to finish as the 15th running back in half-point PPR leagues.
2018 Finish- 20
2019 Finish- 41
Without playing a game for the Kansas City Chiefs, Hyde would move to the Texans to share the backfield with Duke Johns