How to Handle QBs in SFBX
The Draft Director / @ChrisMiles1017
In the Scott Fish Bowl, there are a few things you need on your team in order to give you the best chance to come out as the overall champion. These things are: solid floor players, high upside pieces, a QB that won’t kill you, and a whole lot of luck. In this article we’ll be going over the nuances of the QB position in this format. We’ll also be looking at how the position changes as a whole because of the scoring. Lastly we will look at guys to target and how to address the QB position all together. Let’s dive into it!
First let’s discuss the makeup of the Scott Fish Bowl, there are 1440 teams, 120 divisions, and 12 teams per division. That’s a lot of teams, and, although it might seem impossible right now, someone has to be the winner. I’m here to try and help make that person you. The roster is pretty standard, consisting of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 3 FLEX, and 1 SF. Right off the bat we see this SF spot and think, ”I need to grab 2 solid QBs to start on a weekly basis.” This may actually not be true but we’ll get into that later. For now let’s look at the scoring. It’s a pretty standard 0.5 PPR setup with a few additions; rushing and receiving 1st downs are worth 0.5 points, QB completions are worth 0.5 points, QB incompletions are worth -1 points, QB INTs are -4 points, and TEs receive a 0.5 bonus for each reception and 1st down. Other than these additions everything else is pretty standard for your typical 0.5 PPR league. Now let’s get into what these scoring changes actually mean.
The Scott Fish Bowl does one thing really well and that’s making the QB position matter more than normal… or does it? Sorry for the tease, this format absolutely makes the QB position more valuable, or at least makes it more important to have a good one. To understand this further let’s look at the difference in scoring in 2019 between a standard 0.5 PPR league and the SFBX scoring. Shown below are the top 30 QBs in order by how they would’ve scored in the SFBX format in 2019 (please note all values are points per game).
As you can see, players score less on average in the SFBX format, but that doesn’t really matter to us. If every single player scored less by a similar amount that would mean nothing has changed with this new scoring system, but that is not the case. If you look at players like Trubisky, Josh Allen, and Jared Goff they actually took a decent hit in scoring when switching to the SFBX scoring format. Jameis Winston is the best example of this. Winston was QB8 in .5PPR leagues last year but in the Fish Bowl he would’ve been the QB22. This drastic shift shows that this scoring can really change player values. This shift happens because Winston did not take care of the ball for the Buccs last season. While he was near the top of the league in yards and TDs he was also near the top for incompletions and interceptions, which are both heavily punished in this scoring format. This niche addiction creates a positional scoring disparity which is not normally present in the QB position and what makes the SFBX scoring so interesting. Let’s dive a bit deeper into the data now. Show below are the top 30 QBs in order of their difference in PPG between SFBX and standard 0.5 PPR.
As shown above, only 3 players in all of fantasy would have scored more in the SFBX than a standard 0.5 PPR league last season. This was very interesting to me and I would definitely recommend going after these players in your SFBX drafts. Those were easy to find, now let’s talk about the losers of the format. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins, Baker Mayfield and Jameis Winston were the 5 QBs most heavily impacted by the SFBX scoring. With Winston being a backup in 2020 and Fitzpatrick having very little job security because of Tua at his heels, I’m going to remove them from this discussion. The other 3 QBs become guys I would absolutely recommend avoiding especially considering their current price in mock drafts. Now that we’ve seen what QBs gain and lose the most from the new format, let’s get into the most important effects that SFBX brings; positional scarcity and volatility.
On the volatility front, QBs are now very capable of finishing weeks with negative performances. We need to be careful about how we handle the QB position and try to limit such performances as best we can. Think about this, it takes 2 completions to counteract 1 incompletion (.5 + .5 = 1) so therefore at least 2 of every 3 pass attempts need to be a completion for your QB to not be negatively affected by the incompletion statistic. this works out to be a 66.67 completion % at minimum to stay afloat. That’s why a QB like Brees absolutely thrives in this scoring. He provides a high weekly floor in a format where so many QBs offer no such guarantee. Drew Brees has a large volume but also completes a large majority of his passes so the SFBX scoring actually becomes a benefit for him. We also see guys like Jimmy G, Tannehill, and Lamar among those least affected by this system. This is because these guys have a low passing volume paired with a deadly rushing attack. This allows them to complete easier passes thus limiting mistakes and keeping the scoring from dragging them down.
Now for scarcity. Typically in fantasy football it almost doesn’t matter who your starting QBs are because for the most part QBs have similar odds to score a similar amount of points no matter who they are. However, in SFBX there is a scarcity of top tier talent. Let’s look at the average points per game of every 6th QB in SFBX vs standard 0.5 PPR leagues.
In 2019 the difference between the QB1 and the QB12 in 0.5PPR was just 9.5 PPG. However, in the SFBX scoring format the difference was 15.8 PPG! That is a much larger number. The difference between QB18 and QB30 in 0.5 PPR was 8.6 while in SFBX it was 11.4. Looking at the average drop every 6 spots we see in SFBX it was 5.9 PPG while in 0.5 PPR it was 3.96 PPG. What we can learn from this data is that owning a QB in that top 4-6 elite range is actually much more beneficial than in a typical scoring league. This is because only a few people are boosted or even untouched from the scoring but many are affected negatively. That top tier is separated further apart which means you get a larger advantage than normal in your QB spot from having a top tier guy. We see this in the difference between QB1 and QB6 across the 2 formats. In SFBX as long as you aren’t scraping the bottom of the barrel for your QB2 you should be ok.
In SFBX my favorite targets for an early round QB strategy would be Lamar Jackson, Drew Brees and Mahomes. Drafting anyone else at value in the early rounds is okay but these are the guys I think that are must drafts even at their value. Next for mid round guys I like Stafford, Tannehill, Jimmy G, and Teddy B. Finally the later round guys I’d recommend drafting are Minshew, Carr and Burrow. Now in terms of addressing the position as a whole. My goal would be to draft one of Brees, Lamar, or Mahomes at almost any cost. I’m still taking CMC at 1.01, but then after the top 4 RBs give me Brees. If I can’t get one of these elite assets (now this all depends on how your individual draft goes) I’m just pointing the position until the mid rounds and taking a guy like Cousins, Tannehill, Jimmy G, or TeddyB. These guys I like because they aren’t affected by the new scoring very much and they produced pretty well in 2019 for SFBX scoring. I’d really try to avoid having a QB1 that’s worse than one of these guys. Then, for your QB2 I recommend a high upside guy like Lock, Daniel Jones, Minshew, or Burrow. These guys all have the chance to either show good improvement or come in as a rookie and be a very consistent passer. Finally, for your QB3 I’d recommend another starter if possible but if not I’d try for guys like Jalen Hurts, Jarrett Stidham, Foles, Tua, and Herbert. Guys with upside and either behind injury prone QBs or behind a guy with poor job security. Getting a potential mid season starting QB late in the draft is priceless. To sum up here’s my strategy. Target an elite top 3 guy, grab a lower volume/higher completion % guy in the middle rounds, and shoot for upside late. I hope you enjoyed reading this article as much as I enjoyed writing it. I also hope you took some good information away from it that can help you in your draft. Good luck to everyone that’s participating!