KJ Hamler vs Chase Claypool
46th overall pick vs the 49th overall pick. There seems to be love for one and hate for the other, and, it makes no sense? First, we go over landing spots, production, analytics, injury history, and close with the conclusion.
Draft capital. Both are very high draft picks. Hamler went 46th overall to an offense we think should be good this year. Before taking Hamler in the 2nd, they drafted Jeudy in the 1st round and they already have a bonafide superstar in Sutton (*subtle nod to Sutton*).
Claypool went 49th overall to an offense we know is good and has been great for fantasy purposes for years. They have 2 very good WRs in Juju and DJ. Both Hamler and Claypool will start out the year as the 3rd WR on their respective teams and no one is arguing that.
Pure Physical Traits
Claypool is the much better player in that regard. He is a massive body coming in a 6'4" 235 pounds who runs a 4.42 40 time. 129.8 speed score. 131.9 burst score and if you say he's a TE, tells the world all we need to know.
Hamler comes in at 5'11" 178 pounds. As for his exact measurements physically, we don't know. Why? Missed the combine with a hamstring issue. He follows a LOOONNNGGGGG history of speedy guys with hamstring/knee issues. (Fuller, Ross, Austin, etc).
Claypool has this measure as well. Claypool comes from a run-heavy ND team who had a QB carousel during his time in SB but still outproduced Hamler. He had to sit behind 2 WRs who are in the NFL before he got his chance.
When Claypool started the 2 years he produced;
50 receptions, 639 yards, 4 TDs with a 67% catch rate.
66 receptions, 1037 yards, 13 TDs with a 65% catch rate.
Hamler's 2 years in college he produced.
42 receptions, 754 yards, 5 TDs with a 54% catch rate.
56 receptions, 904 yards, 8 TDs with a 59.6% catch rate.
Other than BOA (which I think is fundamentally flawed but understand the reason people love it). Analytics are in Claypool's favor.
College Target share;
Claypool: 9 7/8
Hamler: 9 3/8
Claypool has a massive edge
Both guys are good players. Both guys are good producers with the edge going to Claypool. I like both players, but they will both have significantly different roles Claypool with be a HUGE TD/Redzone guy for years to come. Hamler will be great at stretching the field. With Hamler comes with a baked-in risk of injury. He absolutely has a huge ceiling, but he also has a Will Fuller-like floor. Hamstring/knee issues don't "go away" and I have had many conversations with @FBInjuryDoc about this. One reason I avoid most "speedy" WRs like Hamler.
Hamler's injury history is A hamstring that kept him out of the combine. A Torn ACL. A concussion against Indiana. Long list? No, but a longer list than guys like Will Fuller had in college. Not saying Fade him, but understand there is injury risk with him. Claypool's injury history; a shoulder injury that kept him out of the Citrus Bowl in 2017.
This article may seem like a big shot at Hamler, it isn't designed to be. It's trying to show why you shouldn't be loving 1 and hating the other. Both teams drafted these guys very high. Both teams LOVE and have been RAVING about BOTH of these guys since they were drafted.
So, a quick review: Hamler: Draft Capital (by 2 picks) and BOA. Claypool has the edge in literally every other category. We film guys like both. LOVE both actually. So let's quit the hate on one and look forward to BOTH playing at a high level for years to come!!!