Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown: Season Review & Future Outlook
The Draft Director / @ChrisMiles1017
Hollywood Brown and the rest of the Ravens offense have been a complete mystery this season. In 2019 we saw them consistently setting records and scoring a massive amount of points. In 2020 the Ravens offense we have seen has been much different and much less productive. I’ll get this out of the way early and tell you that I am in fact a fan of the Ravens and I have watched every game in 2019 and 2020. I share the frustrations of the Ravens fantasy owners as I watch my team and compare them to what they were last year. In this article, I am going to review what the hell happened in 2020 and what to expect from Hollywood in 2021.
In 2019 Hollywood played 14 games, he was also a rookie, missed training camp with a foot injury, and was playing not 100% for the duration of the season. He still managed 71 targets, 584 yards, and 7 touchdowns on one of the most run-heavy offenses in the history of the NFL. Many would call this a successful rookie season. Fast forward to Summer 2020. Brown gets the screws removed from his foot, put in during his Lisfranc surgery, he puts on 20 pounds of muscle and even gets a little faster. Many in the fantasy community thought this would lead to a sophomore explosion in 2020, including myself. I had Brown pegged as a top 15 WR for this season, he is, however, currently WR46 in full PPR. This is not due to his talent but the Raven's offense as a whole.
In 2019 the Ravens averaged 33.2 points per game, which led the league. In 2020 they are averaging 27.1 PPG, about a touchdown less. Marquise had a good rookie year not from high-volume play but his 7 touchdown receptions. With the ravens having a more inept offense in 2020, Brown’s upside has been limited. Brown is actually averaging 6.2 targets per game this season compared to his 5.1 average in 2019. But the steep decline in points is due to a lack of touchdowns.
Right now in dynasty and during the first half of the season I would say that Hollywood has been no more useful than a very low floor, high risk/high upside flex play. Which in dynasty could be useful considering how deep the rosters and starting lineups usually are. However, in 2019 Hollywood saw 29% of his games finish in the top 24 WRs. This season it's been a measly 11.1%. So even in his flex he really isn’t giving you a good shot at that boom upside. So now you must be asking yourself, “What can I do with him in dynasty?” Here’s the answer, unfortunately, nothing.
Hollywood has been disappointing this year, that’s true. But, he’s still only 23 years old, has shown great talent, and is tied to a young promising QB for his career. I’m honestly now sure what Hollywood’s market value is right now because I have not seen any trades involving him, but I imagine it’s somewhere around mid 2nd. If you own him you have to hold and if you don’t I’m probably not buying unless you can get him for an early 3rd. Unfortunately, there exists a world in which this is what we see from Brown for the rest of his career. But if you’re a risk-taker there also exists a world in which Brown turns into a guy like Tyreek Hill. For this to happen the Ravens would need to become more inventive on offense. I’ve been watching the Ravens for years and one thing that I’ve always said about them is that they are very unimaginative in the passing game. Or in other words, they are bad at scheming WRs open. When watching the Ravens you almost never see any WRs making catches away from DBs, they are usually heavily contested and it’s been that way for years.
So, as to what I see for Hollywood in 2021 I have two answers. One answer is more of the same. A speedy WR that averages 5.5 targets per game in a run-heavy offense that may or may not catch a TD every once in a while. My other answer is he and Lamar take a step forward this often and Brown becomes a high target number 1 WR for his team. Brown is already used all over the field and in many different ways. One of the main things holding this back is the Raven's ability and want to run the ball so much. The Ravens will never be top 10 in the league in pass attempts like the Chiefs. But they could be around 16th and giving Hollywood a true WR1 workload. If you want my honest answer, for fantasy I believe it’s more likely that we continue to see that first Hollywood. The one that is low volume and TD dependent. But he will always hold the potential to become that high-volume game-breaker like Tyreek Hill. The choice is yours on if you want to try and buy him, I’m just here to give you the necessary info to make an educated choice. Good luck.