Optimal Draft Strategy For SFBX
The Draft Director / @ChrisMiles1017
In my last article we talked about the changes in the QB position in the SFBX format. We also discussed how to draft the position and a few of my favorite targets. However, in this article we will be talking about what I feel is the best way to come at this monstrous draft and will give you the best chance to end up as the overall champion. Let’s just get right into it shall we.
The TE Position:
First, let’s talk about the TE position and how to handle that. The TE position is only a little different in SFBX compared to a normal 0.5 PPR league. In SFBX the TE’s get an extra 0.5 points per reception and an extra 0.5 points per first down compared to other rushing and receiving 1st downs. Shown below are the top 25 TEs from 2019 SFBX scoring format, 0.5 PPR, and the difference between the two (all on a PPG basis).
There’s nothing too abnormal here, one thing I want to point out for sure is that in these TE Premium type formats Andrews takes a hit. This is because he’s not really a high volume guy that gets a ton of targets, he thrived off of TDs in 2019. In this type of format you want to find someone that demands a lot of targets each week. People that benefited more heavily are obviously those guys at the top that get so many targets each week. However, this is not me saying you must draft one of these guys. If they were to fall then I’m all over it because they do provide a pretty solid weekly advantage. In redraft and especially a league like this I think it would be smart to wait on the position and try to grab the big breakout guy of 2020. I’d highly recommend avoiding the mid round TEs. I just feel that in the mid rounds the value on QB/RB/WR is much better and there isn’t much difference between those mid TEs and the later guys. So, my recommendation would be to target these TEs (the time to grab them will vary based on your individual draft): Hayden Hurst, Mike Gesicki, Jonnu Smith, Ian Thomas, Irv Smith, Jack Doyle, Dawson Knox, Chris Herndon, David Njoku, Jace Sternberger, Dan Arnold, Matt LaCosse/Dalton Keene, Kahale Warring, Ryan Griffin, and Kaden Smith. I’d suggest grabbing one of the first few guys I listed then grabbing 2-3 of the other TEs. This will give you a good shot at finding the breakout TE for 2020. Now let me highlight a few of my favorites from this list. Look at where Hooper finished in SFBX last season in PPG, TE3, I do not see a single reason why Hayden Hurst can’t be just as effective in the Falcons offense as Hooper was in 2019. The Falcons have a pass heavy offense, their defense isn’t great, and they play in what should be a high scoring division with lots of shootouts. Dan Arnold, I feel as if no one is talking about him at all. He came onto the scene late last season for the Cardinals. In the 3 games he played with them in SFBX he would’ve averaged 11.9 PPG, and he’s currently going around TE30-35. Plus the Cardinals play in a high paced, high volume passing offense so I want as many Cards pass catchers as possible. Ryan Griffin and Kaden Smith are currently the second options in their TE rooms but they have some good opportunity for upside. Kaden is behind an injury prone Engram and played very well when forced into the starting role. It’s a similar story for Ryan Griffin who is behind an injury prone Herndon, Griffin was also given a pretty decent contract so the front office clearly likes him, and have confidence in him.
The Running Backs:
Now it’s time for the second act, which just happens to be my favorite position in fantasy football. The RB in my opinion is the most important position in fantasy, and should be the cornerstone of your SFBX roster. When drafting you must hammer RB early and often This is because the RB pool dries up faster than any other position. Shown below will be the top 30 RBs from 2019 with their average PPG in both SFBX and 0.5 PPR formats, and the difference between the two.
Same as TE, not really anything out of the usual here. The main point I want to make sure everyone realizes with the RB position is this. It is in your best interest to try and grab multiple RBs early. When drafting a redraft team there are two things that need to be considered; opportunity cost, and positional advantages. If you can win more of the positional battles than your opponent in most cases you should win. What I mean by this is if your QBs tie, RBs win, WRs lose, TEs lose, and FLEXs win then you should theoretically win this matchup. So, I’m gonna take a tip right out of @LateRoundQB ‘s book. I’m recommending that you follow this plan; in the first 5 rounds of the draft take 4RBs and 1 WR, in rounds 6-9 take 2 QBs, 1 WR, and 1 TE. Then after that it’s pretty much just whoever you feel is BPA. With this strategy you can field a team of 4 high volume RBs, a high volume WR paired with a high target or high upside WR, along with 2 mid tier QBs, and high potential TE. Then my suggestion would be to follow these rounds up with a mix of receiving RBs, a nice mix of high floor/high upside WRs, and potential breakout TEs. I love a lot of the RBs early so instead of listing them all I’ll just name the guys I’d avoid at their current ADP (I say this because if these players fell past their current ADP it may actually be good to choose them). The RBs I would avoid are: Aaron Jones, Kenyan Drake, Raheem Mostert, Chris Carson, James Conner and Derrius Guice. The Packers just added another RB to their roster somewhat high in the draft. Pair this with the fact that GB already heavily used a committee, and it makes me worry about Jones’ volume heading into 2019. I just have not seen enough from Drake to say he warrants being picked at his current ADP in fantasy. He could be good this year but you need to hit on these early picks. Mostert was very good for the 49ers down the stretch, but when Coleman was healthy Mostert suffered a drop in snap count. This will be a full on committee in 2020 and Mostert is currently being drafted as if it’s his backfield alone, and that just is not the case. Carson, Conner and Guice are all for the same reason, injury concerns. These guys are way too risky in my opinion for the SFB. You need players that will be available for you all year, every week matters so much more in a 1440 team league. Especially those weeks later in the year, and you need people that will be healthy during those weeks. This is getting a bit long so I will quickly name my favorite RB targets at their current ADP: Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Miles Sanders, Leonard Fournette, Todd Gurley, CEH, Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, RoJo, Jordan Howard, JK Dobbins, Tarik Cohen, Tevin Coleman, Nyheim Hines, Duke Johnson, Antonio Gibson, and Boston Scott.
The Wide Receivers:
Lastly, let’s talk WRs.
Shown above are what would have been the top 30 WRs in SFBX scoring for 2019. The WRs on average actually gained the least points of any of the other positions, and had the least big risers and fallers. For this reason I’m treating them exactly the same as a typical redraft league. There are legitimately 60 WRs I feel that have weekly WR2 upside. This causes me to just punt the position almost entirely. Outside of a select few in the top 6-8 WRs the rest of them on average will score around the same amount of points. My recommendation when drafting the WR position would be to try and grab a top 6 guy in the 2nd round and then a high floor guy in the 5th/6th like Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, Jarvis Landry or Adam Theilen. Then like I stated before after round 9/10 goes by just start hammering the position. Some of my favorite targets once this range hits are: Deebo Samuel, Marvin Jones Jr., Diontae Johnson, Emmanuel Sanders, Jamison Crowder, Anthony Miller, Preston Williams, Golden Tate, Jalen Reagor, and N’Keal Harry. Jones, Sanders, Crowder, and Tate are all guys that should have high target volumes in 2020, and will provide a good weekly floor. The rest of the list is full of guys that are going very late who have some massive potential upside in 2020.
Let’s now recap the strategy. In rounds 1-5, take 4 RBs and 1 WR. In rounds 6-9, take 2 QBs, 1 WR, and 1 TE. Then after this I’d go BPA in general, but make sure to grab some WRs quickly as that pool will start to dry up in the next few rounds. Follow that up or mix in some pass catching RBs, then stack some high upside TEs. Here’s a lineup that I recently got using this strategy; Daniel Jones, Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, Tyreek Hill, Robert Woods, TJ Hockenson, Deebo Samuel, Melvin Gordon, D’Andre Swift, Ronald Jones, Matt Breida, Jamison Crowder, Jack Doyle and Dawson Knox. I really liked this team and think that following this strategy will help lead you to the Scott Fish Bowl Championship.