Player Profile: Drew Lock
FF Sam / @FFBallAllDay
The first section will cover a summary of Lock.
The next section covers Pat Shurmur and his importance with an understanding of what the offense will look like.
The final section will be Locks expectations moving forward! Enjoy!
He's everyone's favorite breakout QB. Why? Well, first we need to dig into who Lock is, what he did last year, and why people are excited. Lock played the final 5 games of the year leading the Broncos to a 4-1 record while not making many mistakes.
He is your prototypical QB stands at 6'4 weighing 228 pounds and can run when needed but isn't a special athlete. He's a quick and smart thinker and his Wonderlic matches this. 26 on his Wonderlic.
He completed 64% of his passes, throwing for just over 1,000 yards, 7 TDs and 3 INTs. Decent numbers, but nothing amazing. The best part of everything Lock did was his decision making and willingness to "take what the defense gives him" and not be greedy about it.
Here is a simple and short breakdown of some of the good and some of the bad about Lock last year broken down by @zacshomler over on his YouTube, Strong Opinion Sports.
He does a great job pointing out that, for most of the time, Lock plays smart, understands the D, and makes the right decision. His mechanics could use a little bit of work but nothing alarming. His 4-1 start was great but more importantly it set a teaser of what to expect.
This offseason, the Broncos built around him by bringing in tons of pieces, more importantly, they brought in Pat Shurmur. Some coaches are better Coordinators than HC and Shurmur is one of those guys.
Shurmur is a fantastic OC and will give Lock the offense he needs to thrive. His most recent stint as OC with the Vikings Shurmur and CASE KEENUM lit the world on fire. That year, after Bradford was hurt, Case came in and never looked back, completing 67% of his passes for 3500 yards and 22 TDS in 14 games as a starter.
We all remember that magical run they had together. Why is that important? Case and Lock are very similar in the way they play football. Make the right reads, play it smart, and strike when it is there. The offense with Case and Shurmur together finished 11th.
More importantly, it is how the teams were constructed.
McKinnon/Murray - Cook torn ACL week 4
The team molds here are very similar.
At QB you have a gunslinger who can read D and not make too many mistakes RB you have 2 guys who can do it all and catch the ball out of the backfield while bulldozing runners.
WR in Jeudy you have a similar mold in Thielen, a possession type WR. WR in Sutton you have a physical freak who is bigger and stronger than most guys who resembles Diggs back then. At TE you have a physical specimen who can block out of the Y/H position (depending on formation) and catch the ball and be a redzone problem.
Defensively, they were and are both tough gritty teams who can hit you in the mouth. Expect that 20' Broncos offense too closely resemble the 17' Vikings offense. Lock is just as good, if not slightly better than Keenum was then. That being said, the ceiling is a little bit higher.
With mediocre weapons (Sutton/Fant/Lindsay were all they had) Lock went 4-1 when he wasn't supposed to. He's a hard working kid who loves the game of football but isn't cocky about it and rubbing people the wrong way. People love him and his swagger. With Gordon, Jeudy, Albert O, and a rebuilt right side of the offensive line, AND getting Chubb back on D the Broncos are ready for 2020 They are exciting for 2020 and all of these reasons are why.
So, what should we expect from Lock in 2020?
Lock's 16 game pace last year was --- 3300 yards, 22 TDs, 10 INT and 72 rushing yards. That was with the bad line, not as good of weapons, a worse OC than what he has coming in and his rookie year. This would have made him the QB20.
Realistic projections with Shurmur running the offense and all those weapons --- 4100 yards, 66% completion, 26 TDs, 13 INT, and 130 Rushing yards and a TD. These numbers would have made him (6 point passing TDs) the QB12 (THATS A QB 1!) last year. Little rich? Maybe but heading into year 2 with the promise he showed with limited weapons, bad line, and so on? Getting a player that late with that kind of upside is what fantasy is all about! The past 2 MVP's have been 2nd year QBs. Is it Lock? Doubtful, but he's set up to succeed and anything is possible.
Drew Lock is the most exciting and enticing player heading into 2020 and for good reason! Cannot wait to see him explode in 2020 and sit back and think how the puzzle aligned!