Player Profile: Ryan Tannehill
FF Sam / @FFBallAllDay
Ryan Tannehill; it wasn't a fluke. He's a top 10 QB, at worst.
Tannehill being the starter in Tennesee was only a matter of time. If you were following me last year, you likely heard me say to make sure you owned Tannehill. I sat on it, and owned him in every league. Waiver pickup in every one of them. The talent's never been the concern.
Last year, as everyone knows, he was the QB4 when he started and beyond. Week 6-16 he averaged 21.25 PPG. This was 1.72 PPG behind the QB2 (Jameis) during this stretch. That's amazing and you love to see it! But is that sustainable? Let's find out! (Thread--- 4pt passing TDS)
This offseason the Titans let T Jack Conklin walk. A good player, but isn't a perennial tackle like most believe. The Titans also believe this because they let him walk. In the 1st round of the NFL draft the Titans took Georgia tackle, Isiah Wilson. Many believe he was the best tackle in the draft.
In 2019 @PFF graded both players and even they agree Wilson is a stud.
Conklin PFF Grade: 88.9 Wilson PFF Grade: 78.5
Yes, Conklin is the better player, but they did not lose a huge gap. They replaced him with a younger tackle with a very safe floor and VERY high ceiling.
The Titans also lost their 3rd down RB Dion Lewis. Lewis was great in his prime, but he had clearly lost a step for his designated role. Losing him was more addition by subtraction 93rd overall, the Titans selected Darrynton Evans with the 93rd overall pick. Evans was a complete back in Appalachian State, but more importantly, a 3rd down specialist. He will come in day 1 and make the 3rd down offense just that much better. He's better than Lewis day 1. He gives that offense another boost (sure would love to see some Henry targets). Go ask @dynastyprice as well if you want to know more on Evans!
But, we can't forget about TE. Delanie Walker, once great in his prime, has moved on. 24-year-old, Athletic stud, Jonnu Smith is primed to take a big step forward in 2020 and he's the unquestioned starter.
Fantasy beloved, a superstar in the making, AJ Brown is entering his second year as well looking to take a step forward. Tannehill's overall situation on offense will be better than in 2019. The offensive scheme isn't changing at all. No major shakeups in how the offense there. Something that is often forgotten about Tannehill which makes him a very safe option? He can RUN!
(Photo Credit: Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)
Tannehill graded out as #1 overall in play-action passes at 143.3 and completed 81% of his passes in play-action He was tied 1st overall (Wilson and Stafford) with a grade of 93.4. Since 2015, he has the 5th most pass completions of 60+ yards. He even missed an entire season. According to @pff_titans , Tannehill averaged 9.6 yards per attempt in 2019. 1 full yard more than any other QB. He wasnt just dinking and dunking. Tannehill was slinging it. Tannehill was PFF's 3rd overall graded QB in 2019, 90.2.
We will now look at projections. And don't worry "HE'S GONNA REGRESS and ITS NOT SUSTAINABLE" crowd, I have something for you too.
Let's touch base. Contract Extension for Tannehill and Henry? Check.
The offense being no worse or a tad better? Check.
For the sake of argument, I'm going to show you 2 numbers. 1 where he doesn't improve and stays the exact same, and 1 where he regresses. If Tannehill plays all 15 fantasy games at the exact same fantasy production as last year (21.25 ppg) he will score 318.7 points. Those 318.7 fantasy points would have tied him for the QB5 on the season. Tied with Jameis for the entire 15 game stretch. Not using a 16 game estimate because fantasy football is over before week 17. But let's assume he regresses. 3 points per game (thats ALOT) (75 passing yards a game or 7.5 TDs on the year). So we have him at 18.25 PPG. Those 15 games would give him 273.75 fantasy points. 273.75 fantasy points and a lot of regression, would have made him the QB10 in 2019. His floor, is very likely this regression number here. If you can draft a locked in QB1 with top 5 upside you do it. Ryan Tannehill's ADP per @FFCalculator in SF leagues is stupid late. He's going in the mid 14th round and as the QB24.
You can draft RBs early, be patient and draft a top 10QB for literally free. He's the definition as an auto smash at his ADP. He has the floor. He has the upside. There's literally no reason not to have him on your teams in 2020.
At the end of the day, fantasy football doesn't have to be hard.
Draft Ryan Tannehill in 2020 and win a lot of games!