Playing Big; Find The Diamonds In The Rough
Recently, I saw a fantastic thread on Twitter discussing players who came in as taller prospects among the wide receiver class. @DynastySflex broke it down in a recent thread.
In summary, it summed up to showing these taller receivers who hit the following metrics showed a 67% chance of hitting as at least a WR2 season in their career but also gave a 54.2% chance of finishing top 12 or even a 37.5% of being top 5.
Those are huge thresholds clearings with potential so I went through this class to see what guys maybe had a chance to meet the criteria needed to live up to this expectation set up. I included the image below to highlight our fourteen receivers who met the height condition. From there, I include the other factors mentioned for us to break down together.
First up the following conditions were needed: 1st or 2nd round draft capital, a college dominator rating of 29.5+%, a BMI of 26.35 or more, a yards dominator rating of more than 20%, and lastly a forty time of 4.60 or less. Now the one we can not account for currently is draft capital so my focus was more on the others. With the BMI part, I did not get in close detail of hundredths place so any prospect with a 26.3 BMI or higher was considered a hit since weight can fluctuate upwards of 5 pounds each day based on several factors.
I moved our current hits pending capital up to the top. Right at the top is two guys I am very happy to see as I am very interested in both these players. First off is Terrace Marshall JR from LSU who I believe is a very high candidate for being a late 1st to early 2nd round prospect. He learned beside two elite guys and still managed to show he has the profile that proves he is capable of playing well at the next level. His analytical profile on the Dashboard also backs that up too.
We see he hits the majority of the categories I look at for the success of next-level receivers. Note even closer the context of how far off he was on the ones he failed. His second year he played with elite guys and was left as the third man up. That lowered his market share of when we see most other receivers take that step up as a pivotal force. That also affected his other two fail categories with the yards per route run literally 0.01 of a yard off. Enjoy the discount of a guy you can take at the end of the 1st or even early 2nd this draft.
Next up is the other young man I believe is a candidate to meet our threshold of draft capital with Seth Williams from Auburn. I am not worried about his speed as he shows in so many different other categories that he can be useful in the NFL. My main worry with him is developing him into a better run blocker. Speed is overrated some, but you see again that he hits more than just what the threshold requires on Dashboard.
This prospect literally has met everything I see guys want their WRs to have to go into the NFL. And the dashboard even acknowledges that Day 2 capital includes an extra round. There is hate on this dude and part of the reason is recency bias. His QB situation took a major step back in 2020 and so he was not able to quite take up the next step they wanted. Even still he had almost a third of the total yardage and four of the TWELVE touchdown passes thrown all season. I repeat, the offense as a whole was 90th in scoring points per game and had the 4th highest rated strength of schedule season. Take that discount and lock in Seth Williams somewhere in the mid to late 2nd since I typically have seen him going around 3.04 of most rookie mocks before the draft.
The next two are dark horses who hit most of the metrics, but I do expect them to not get the necessary capital. I am hesitant on Jonathan Adams JR. as it took until his final year for us to see that explosion of performance. I recently mentioned in episode nine of the Fantasy Scouts Podcast that the track record is not great for four plus-year receivers who get 1st or 2nd round draft capital when talking about Toney and Devonta Smith. Adams JR will unlikely get that capital and fall even lower. But I can see the intrigue for late flyers or waiver wire priority selections. Similar issue with Fehoko on draft capital along with his age where he was much older than most of his competition since he took a two-year missionary trip before coming to college and playing three years.
The next three guys all failed one current category with Sage Surratt and Jhamon Ausbon both running slow and Tamorrion Terry missing the BMI standard. Of those three, Terry definitely has the highest ceiling as a few pounds added could put him into the above tier. He does also carry a lot of risks which is why he is currently a round 3 prospect. I know Surratt was dominant as well so I am curious to see what the NFL does with him now to decide whether he ends up being a late-round flyer. Same for Ausbon.
Now for everyone else. The only one I may consider based on just the analytical part is probably Michigan’s Nico Collins. We know Michigan sucks at using their offensive talent and he had a similar situation as Terry with his weight. But do not overreach on him. For the rest, I would not consider more than a late rookie 4th or 5th IF the NFL decides to take a shot on them by early day 3. This was a fun time so I hope you enjoyed it; I will add two others shortly in the future for our medium-sized and shorter receivers on what may be some separating tiers based on the analytics side.