• Sam Erman

SuperFlex QBs: Are they over-valued?

FF Sam / @FFBallAllDay

Current ADPs for QB in SF per...


Mahomes- 1.01/1.02 

LJAX 1.02/1.03 

Murray 1.07/1.08 

Watson 1.10/1.11 

Dak 2.7/2.8 

Wilson 2.8/2.9

The top elite QBs listed above are your typical outliers. Elite guys who are locked in QB1s After those guys- it's a bunch of average. The difference between 2019 QB9 (Wentz) and QB24 (Brissett) was 4 PPG but they are drafted such as there is a few of them.

You can draft a Stafford/Tannehill/Big Ben/Teddy/Lock in rounds 7-9. While only, at most, missing out on those 4 ppg while stacking up the skilled positions (Mainly RBs) early Last year there were 24 QBs you could start on a weekly basis and survive.

RBs are the thinnest position. While stacking them early you can set yourself up for an immediate run. While everyone is panicking over an "elite" QB (typically the first 5 or 6) after that there's not a huge difference you should be stacking RBs and still draft QB later.

The same difference in RBs (RB9-Ingram) and RB24 (Rojo) was 5.5 ppg. And after the first 12-14 RBs they are start or sits by matchup. Where as QBs at that range are still plug and chug.

You can draft a Kamara and Jacobs in rounds 1 & 2. Then hit Julio/Diggs/Juju/OBJ in round 3. Shoot, then come around in round 4 and grab a Mark Andrews Pick the limited positions clean. Then in rounds 5/6/7/8 look for a QB because as we know the difference after the "elite" tier is so minimal you can grab a Tannehill/Stafford/Lock/Big Ben/ etc and never notice a difference.

Here's an example of a recent mock draft Which "core" would you rather have?

Team A 

QB: Goff (6th) 

RB: Cook (1st) 

RB: Chubb (2nd) 

WR: Diggs (3rd) 

WR: AJB (4th) 

TE: Waller (5th) 

QB2: Teddy (7th) 

Team B: 

QB: LJAX (1st) 

RB: Swift (4th) 

RB: Bell (2nd) 

WR: Boyd (6th) 

WR: Kirk (8th) 

WR: Deebo (5th)

TE: Hooper (7th) 

QB2: Mayfield (3rd)

When looking at these 2 teams the QB (Jackson) does give an initial obvious advantage The difference between Goff and Baker will be less than 4 points. But by taking RBs and WRs early you have an angle to not miss out on "weekly" points.

Team B could have landed an AJB and then later landed a Tannehill or Lock. Lock/Tannehill/Daniel Jones + AJB > Mayfield + Boyd The ppg difference won't be noticed in the QB position but will be in the WR and RB positions but by name value and "reaching" it sets you back.

There are 12-14 viable RBs There are 22-24 viable QBs. There are 36-40 viable WRs and to be technical, you only need to start 1 QB -Not ideal to do so- but you can.

Starting a QB you drafted in the 3/4th round will usually have no more upside or floor than a QB you drafted in the 6th or 7th round But that RB/WR you drafted in the 3/4th rounds sure has more upside and floor than that 6/7th round RB.

Not saying 1 is right, 1 is wrong. But the pickings are slim at RB. After the first 5-6 QBs go "the Elite guys" you wont notice much of a difference between the next 18 QBs who get drafted. 4ppg can easily be made up and improved at the WR/RB positions Just some food for thought.