Track Speed WRs
FF Sam / @FFBallAllDay
I, like many, hear the notion, "Track speed like WRs get injured more often than other WRs". So I dug into this. The data WILL shock you.
The data set I created has over 78 seasons worth of games in it and all recorded from 2010 and beyond All WRs I tracked have 2 things all in common, 4.39 or faster 40 time and BMI of 28 or below.
The first set of data was very simple. The players who hit these 2 marks.
- Played 69% of games
- Missed 31% of games
An average of 11.04 games played.
I was curious so I continued to peel the onion and began dividing these WRs even more. How did I do so? By using BMI.
I divided them into 2 categories. Players with a BMI below 26.00 and players with a BMI above 26.00. Why did I use 26? Well simple, I had 0 WRs I came across with a 26 BMI. They were all 25 or 27 BMI. This is where there is a huge discrepancy.
Players with a BMI of 26 or below and running a 40 of 4.39 and lower: play on average 61% of games. Meaning they played on average, 9.76 games per year. Some current WRs who hit this threshold? Hollywood Brown, Ross, Fuller, Byrd, etc.
Players with a BMI 26 and above who run a 40 of 4.39 and below play on average: 71.8% of games meaning they play right around 11.51 games per year. Some WRs who hit this threshold are Tyreek, Mecole, Goodwin, Campbell, etc.
The data-set I have, somewhat big, somewhat small, but is large enough to give us a good baseline. But 0, yup 0, of the WRs I tracked with a BMI below 26 have ever played a full 16 game season.
Conclusion? "Trackspeed" WRs will miss games, but the WRs of a smaller BMI are likely to miss more games more often than their counterparts of BMIs 26 and above I have always been very "outspoken" on fading speedy WRs but now I'll be much more open, but will depend on their BMI from here on out. Some guys I will continue to fade. Someone will ask, so I'll address it now. Henry Ruggs. His BMI is literally 26.50. Dead middle, so with him, his rookie year will be how I judge him going forward.
Moving forward, if you ask me about a "speedy" WR, I will always pay much more attention to their BMI. Hope this helps someone!